There really is no precedent for this election and the myriad of variables that could impact what happens on November 3rd and the days that follow. Are we looking at a certain winner in the presidential race who is generally accepted by Americans? Or will it be more muddled than that? This election might not be decided as quickly as everyone would like. Patience as a country will be key while we wait for a thorough and accurate accounting of the votes.
This virus is roaring back. The past week has seen the worst new case numbers since the pandemic began. A growing consensus is predicting a worse winter than was initially expected, with more cases and spread of COVID-19. Unfortunately, a virus resurgence means a slowing of mobility and consumption as people retrench into their homes to avoid infection. The silver lining? We are getting better at treating patients and are bringing better solutions to bear to improve health outcomes. Hopes are high for multiple viable vaccines that become widely distributed mid-2021.
Stimulus is a no-go.
At least for now. Congress has gone home. Post election, the stars will have to align for anything meaningful to get accomplished by year end.
Earnings and GDP.
Earnings season has begun with gusto, with numbers better than anticipated. “85% of companies have beat expectations by an astounding 19% on average.” Earnings season is certainly not over but things are looking up. Yet the market has been selling off in a big way, with COVID surging and European lockdowns rolling out. Which means the investment markets are reacting to future consumption and earnings numbers, rather than looking backward to what’s already happened. The Q3 GDP number was huge, and a tad higher at an annualized rate than consensus estimates. Keep in mind that the fall of GDP in the previous quarter due to the shutdown meant the base we were building from was significantly lower as well.